“The Fourth Turning” is a generational theory proposed by authors William Strauss and Neil Howe in a 1997 book, describing a repeating 80-100 year cycle of societal crisis and renewal. It is a historical and sociological framework, not an economic forecasting model endorsed by the Federal Reserve, Treasury, or any government economic agency — treating it as a prediction of specific financial market outcomes goes well beyond what the theory itself claims.

If you’re making retirement allocation decisions, base them on your own financial plan, documented economic data (BLS inflation figures, Fed policy statements, Treasury yield data), and a fiduciary advisor’s guidance — not a generational cycle theory being used to sell a specific investment product.